James doesn't know jack.

Bill James has released his projections for the 2009 season. I haven't had much of a chance to look at the numbers, but my good friend Matt did me a huge favor and compiled the projections for all Red Sox players into a nice, neat spreadsheet (See bottom of this post).

Bill James, father of sabermetrics, obviously knows his shit. He wouldn't be on the Boston payroll if he wasn't a wizard with statistics. But I have to say, this year I find some of his projections a bit puzzling. I won't bore you by going through each and every player, but here are the projections I find to be particularly poor:

Jacoby Ellsbury - Bill James says: .302 AVG.

Jacoby hit .280 last year, and while he had a major slump mixed in there, I think that's about where he will end up again this year. Jacoby should be more consistent in his 2nd full season, but I don't think he will take a major step forward in the batting average department. His BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was .314 last year, which is slightly above league average. He would have to have considerable luck and/or start making more solid contact if he wants his average to jump that significantly. I say: .284 AVG.

David Ortiz - Bill James says: 37 HR

David hit 35 HR in 2007, and only 23 in 2008. Sure, injuries have hampered him, but I don't think it's realistic to expect a fully healthy season for Big Papi in 2009. It's no secret that the Red Sox front office is worried about a steep decline (a la Mo Vaughn), and while I'm not ready to stick a fork in Ortiz just yet, 37 HR sounds a bit ambitious. His FB/HR% (Fly Ball/Home Run) has declined every year since it peaked in his ridiculous 54 HR season in 2006. I expect he will miss fewer games this year than last, and if he regains some of the strength in his wrist and knees, he should turn a few more of those long fly balls into HRs. I'm just not counting on a return to his old mashing form. I say: 30 HR

Julio Lugo - Bill James says: 128 games played, 463 ABs

This projection made me physically ill. If Julio Lugo plays 128 games this season, we're in serious trouble. That's like the Celtics giving Sam Cassell 35 minutes a night. Woof. Lugo was brought in (at a ridiculous 4 yrs./$36M) to be an offensive sparkplug, but he's been an enormous disappointment in his two season as a Red Sox. To make matters worse, he's been brutal defensively. The Red Sox used a quadriceps injury last year as a convenient excuse to plug prospect Jed Lowrie into the everyday lineup. I don't know what kind of sick scenario Bill James' is counting on by projecting Lugo to get 463 at-bats this season, but I hope he was assuming he would be playing for a different team. I say: 67 games

Josh Beckett - Bill James says: 13 wins

13 W's? For Josh Fuckin' Beckett? Okay, to be fair to Mr. James, I should note that Beckett was 12-10 last year, and has only made 30 starts twice in his career (limiting his opportunity for wins). But this is the same guy who lost the 2007 CY Young by just a few votes, and he's one of the fiercest competitors in the game. If you think he doesn't want to make up for his terrible showing in last year's postseason, you're crazy. He's going to be a man on a mission from the first day of spring training, and I expect a rebound to 2007 form. Here's a great article if you don't believe me. I say: 17 Wins

John Lester - Bill James says: 12-11 record, 4.02 ERA, 1.39 WHIP

BLAH! This is easily the most puzzling of James' projections. Those are some gross numbers for a guy who was easily our best pitcher in 2008. I'm not in the camp that Lester will make another leap forward - I think he's in for a slight regression in 2009 - but I can't see where James is getting these numbers from. For his career, Lester is 27-8 in 59 starts, a .771 winning percentage. He's historically kept his team in the game, allowing more than 4 runs only 11 times in those 59 starts (and more than 5 runs in only 3 starts). Combine that consistency with an offense that Mr. James projects to score over 900 runs, and I just don't see 11 losses. A 4.02 ERA would be equally shocking. In 2008, Lester's first full season in the league, his worst month from an ERA standpoint was August, when he was 3-2 with a 4.34 in 6 starts. If you throw out his two highest ERA months, you're left with 2.97 (May), 3.03 (June), 2.05 (July), and 2.14 (September). Moving on to WHIP, 1.39 would be a horrible regression for Lester. For much of 2008 he displayed pinpoint control (3 BBs in June, 6 in July, 8 in August) and if you don't walk a lot of batters, it's hard to have a 1.39 WHIP. His worst WHIP month was April, when he walked 20 batters and had a whip of 1.49 in 6 starts. Aside from that, his month by month WHIP totals were 1.21 (May), 1.29 (June), 1.21 (July), 1.21 (August), and 1.16 (September). Sorry Bill, but where is 1.39 coming from? Is Jon Lester going to regress all the way to the pitcher he was in 2006? I say: 15-8, 3.38 ERA, 1.27 WHIP

John Smoltz - Bill James says: 15 starts

I know he's old. Okay, he's really old. Not many people expect the 41 year-old (42 in May) John Smoltz to be able to pitch more than a couple of months. But I think they're all wrong. John Smoltz is a warrior. John Smoltz doesn't do anything half assed. When John Smoltz enters a rehab program, he comes back stronger. The guy was throwing his fastball in the 90s and throwing all 5 of his pitches with pinpoint accuracy even before the Red Sox signed him earlier this month. The Sox will be careful with him. They probably won't let him pitch right away, even if he says he's ready, and they will probably monitor his innings closely. But I'm confident Smoltz will pitch well and pitch plenty. I think early May is a realistic timeline for him to start the season, and I think he'll get the occasional extra day of rest, but he'll stick in the rotation for the duration. I say: 22 starts.

Check out the complete spreadsheet below, and leave a comment with the projection YOU disagree with most.

Player	G	AB	H	AVG	R	OBP	SLG	OPS	2B	HR	RBI	SB
Ellsbury	145	559	169	0.302	100	0.359	0.424	0.783	29	9	53	52
Pedroia	158	642	202	0.315	107	0.376	0.472	0.848	52	15	78	16
Ortiz	142	539	155	0.288	98	0.396	0.571	0.966	39	37	119	1
Youkilis	155	608	176	0.289	102	0.386	0.487	0.873	47	23	101	4
Drew	140	495	135	0.273	93	0.395	0.477	0.872	29	22	79	5
Bay	156	582	163	0.281	100	0.376	0.505	0.881	35	30	102	9
Lowell	128	462	128	0.277	59	0.343	0.448	0.791	31	16	75	2
Lowrie	148	544	150	0.276	79	0.366	0.417	0.783	37	10	83	3
Varitek	122	395	94	0.238	45	0.334	0.392	0.726	20	13	52	1
Baldelli	103	312	87	0.279	47	0.331	0.465	0.795	18	12	44	5
Kotsay	94	295	79	0.268	34	0.331	0.383	0.714	17	5	32	2
Lugo	128	463	119	0.257	60	0.328	0.359	0.687	25	6	46	18
Bard	84	306	82	0.268	30	0.337	0.392	0.729	20	6	39	0
Player	G	GS	W	L	ERA	IP	K	WHIP	Saves	AVG	FIP
Beckett	29	29	13	8	3.57	189	176	1.22	0	0.248	3.69
Lester	32	32	12	11	4.02	212	168	1.39	0	0.259	4.07
Daisuke	30	30	12	8	3.58	184	174	1.29	0	0.236	3.81
Penny	22	21	8	7	3.92	130	90	1.35	0	0.268	4.01
Wakefield	28	28	10	8	3.91	160	107	1.29	0	0.251	4.69
Smoltz	15	15	6	5	3.87	93	78	1.29	0	0.266	3.68
Buchholz	24	24	7	6	4.27	116	111	1.42	0	0.258	4.17
Lopez	66	0	3	3	4.14	57	38	1.47	0	0.265	4.06
MDC	71	0	6	3	3.44	81	80	1.31	1	0.237	3.36
Ramirez	66	0	4	4	3.74	67	62	1.34	1	0.247	3.74
Okajima	61	0	5	2	3.19	61	57	1.16	0	0.229	3.57
Saito	50	0	4	2	3.09	52	55	1.12	0	0.231	3.25
Masterson	55	0	4	3	4.13	63	58	1.43	0	0.259	3.91
Littleton	61	0	5	3	3.93	71	51	1.38	0	0.259	4.21
Papelbon	64	0	5	3	2.04	71	78	0.97	41	0.209	2.83

Thanks, Matt!