Celtics are walking wounded...

The Celtics are now playing without two starters (Kevin Garnett and Rajon Rondo) and three key bench players (Tony Allen, Glen Davis, and Brian Scalabrine) and I can't help but feel a little responsible, as I've featured both KG and Rondo wallpapers at work over the last couple of months. So what is a worried Celtics fan to do? I found the answer this morning on www.inanemusings.com, another quality Celtics blog I read. They originally posted this last May during the playoffs, but I think it's time to pull it out again. If we have any chance of having homecourt advantage in the playoffs, it's probably going to take a LeBron James injury. So buy a voodoo doll, or at the very least, set this as your desktop background for a few days. I'm going to give it a few days on my monitors at work, and if King James goes down then I'll know there's something supernatural going on here. 

Manny rejects 2 year, $45M offer from Dodgers

Wow. Before I could even blog about how stupid the Dodgers were for essentially bidding against themselves and upping their offer for the 37 year-old malcontent, Manny and his agent Scott Boras ripped up the overly generous contract, leaving many wondering if Ramirez will be on the field for any team on Opening Day. 

I've hated on Scott Boras before, but now I'm really beginning to wonder if he's completely lost his touch. Sure, he secured huge contracts for CC Sabathia and Mark Teixeira, but both of those players were in their prime and coming off of big seasons. Besides, he only had to deal with the Yankees who have no problem overpaying. 

Boras seems to be having a hard time adjusting his clients' expectations to fit within the current economic climate, which has lead every team besides the MF'in Yankees to tighten payroll. In the cases of Jason Varitek and Manny Ramirez, the expectations have far exceeded the actual offers. 

Varitek ended up taking a 50% paycut. Whether Ramirez will even be employed this season remains to be seen. 

Luckiest shot ever?

If you didn't see this play, prepare to be amazed. 

With 1.8 seconds on the clock, Devin Harris receives the inbound pass, takes 1 dribble, and attempts a heave from about 65 feet. He's fouled pretty obviously on the play by Iguodala (no call), the ball comes loose, bounces off of both players' chests and somehow ends up right in Harris' hands again. In one motion he regains possession and tosses in an absolute swish from halfcourt.  Wait, why am I giving you the play-by-play? Just watch for yourself:

"Softball Guy"

If you've ever played in a men's softball league, you probably played with/against at least one guy like this, who just took things way too seriously.  If you happen to have "that guy's" email address, tell him he better start getting ready for the season, because the real diehards already have!

 

This video makes me wish Southbridge Softball Association would serve hot dogs at the games and allow beer drinking in the dugout!

Don't mess with Christian Bale

This isn't the sort of news I typically cover, but I heard this on the radio this morning and I thought the world needed to hear this. Someone working on the "Terminator Salvation" set captured this audio of Bale berating the director of photography for apparently walking onto the set during the filming of a scene. I imagine these sort of mistakes happen once in a while during the many months required to film a movie of this magnitude, but judging from Bale's reaction, only an unprofessional, no-talent hack would EVER dare to interrupt one of his scenes. 

The audio runs 3:45, but you'll probably get the point after the first 30 seconds. All I can say is what a douche bag. Simma down nah Christian!

He's baaaack!

So sometime between last night and this morning it dawned on Jason Varitek that he had no other offers out there, and that if he didn't accept the Sox offer, he was going to make exactly $0M this season. 

Boston.com is reporting the Sox have signed Varitek to a one-year contract with an option. Varitek will earn $5 million in 2009, with the club holding a $5 million option for 2010. If the Red Sox do not pick up that option, Varitek has the choice of remaining with the club on a $3 million deal. 

He'll be overpaid in 2009, but not nearly as overpaid as he was in 2008. And this signing will give the Sox time to find their catcher of the future. Hopefully Jason doesn't come to camp with a chip on his shoulder, or with his tail between his legs feeling sorry for himself. If Jason wants to perpetuate his image as the consummate professional, he will turn down the opportunity to discuss the contract negotiations entirely, and bust his ass to get into great shape for the start of the season. 

Will he or won't he? Varitek's deadline has come and gone...

The Red Sox did the right thing last week, when they gave Jason Varitek a deadline of 8:30 AM this morning to accept their last and final offer to the disgruntled 36 year-old backstop. 

The Jason Varitek saga has gone on long enough, and the team needs to know one way or the other what their options are at Catcher this season. 

Varitek (and his agent Scott Boras) got greedy and declined arbitration that would have paid Jason at least the $10M he made in 2008, even though the market for Varitek was almost non-existent. With no other competing offers on the table, the Sox made the offer they feel is fair considering Jason's drastically declining production: One year at $5 million guaranteed, plus an option for 2010 that could either be picked by the team for $5 million or by Varitek for $3 million.

It's now after 1 PM EST, so why haven't we heard about his decision? There is no news anywhere. While the world awaits Tek's decision, allow me to put in my 2 cents:

If Varitek walks away from the Red Sox offer, we move on. Varitek has been a great player, a leader in the clubhouse ("the captain"), and a model citizen and pitchers claim that he calls an incredible game. Losing him would mean that someone else needs to step up in the clubhouse, and our pitchers and pitching coach will need to do a little more homework to know what to throw to which hitter and in which situation. But these changes were coming anyway. Jason wasn't going to be here much longer no matter how you slice it. The club has been actively seeking a young catcher to replace Varitek for a couple of years now. What's more, Varitek's skills had been on an steep decline. He batted a pathetic .220 last season, and it looked like he was completely overmatched. It may be humbling to accept a paycut from $10M to $5M, but when you consider the declining skills and the decimated economy, $5M is probably more than he's worth. This front office has shown a refusal to become attached to players, especially old, declining players. Making an exception for Varitek would be a mistake. 

If he accepts the offer and comes back to the Sox, I'm okay with that. Theo and the boys will have won a long, drawn out contest to see who would blink first. Perhaps more importantly, they will have called Boras' bluff and beat him at his own game. Next time the Red Sox get into a contract negotiation with a Boras client, maybe he will think twice before walking away from guaranteed money. My hope for Varitek would be that he would stay healthy, experience a rebound to near his .263 career average, and act as a mentor for whatever young catchers the Sox use to keep Jason fresh throughout the year.  

I guess what I'm trying to say is, it's a win-win for the Sox. I just can't wait until this soap opera is over. Stay tuned...

James doesn't know jack.

Bill James has released his projections for the 2009 season. I haven't had much of a chance to look at the numbers, but my good friend Matt did me a huge favor and compiled the projections for all Red Sox players into a nice, neat spreadsheet (See bottom of this post).

Bill James, father of sabermetrics, obviously knows his shit. He wouldn't be on the Boston payroll if he wasn't a wizard with statistics. But I have to say, this year I find some of his projections a bit puzzling. I won't bore you by going through each and every player, but here are the projections I find to be particularly poor:

Jacoby Ellsbury - Bill James says: .302 AVG.

Jacoby hit .280 last year, and while he had a major slump mixed in there, I think that's about where he will end up again this year. Jacoby should be more consistent in his 2nd full season, but I don't think he will take a major step forward in the batting average department. His BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was .314 last year, which is slightly above league average. He would have to have considerable luck and/or start making more solid contact if he wants his average to jump that significantly. I say: .284 AVG.

David Ortiz - Bill James says: 37 HR

David hit 35 HR in 2007, and only 23 in 2008. Sure, injuries have hampered him, but I don't think it's realistic to expect a fully healthy season for Big Papi in 2009. It's no secret that the Red Sox front office is worried about a steep decline (a la Mo Vaughn), and while I'm not ready to stick a fork in Ortiz just yet, 37 HR sounds a bit ambitious. His FB/HR% (Fly Ball/Home Run) has declined every year since it peaked in his ridiculous 54 HR season in 2006. I expect he will miss fewer games this year than last, and if he regains some of the strength in his wrist and knees, he should turn a few more of those long fly balls into HRs. I'm just not counting on a return to his old mashing form. I say: 30 HR

Julio Lugo - Bill James says: 128 games played, 463 ABs

This projection made me physically ill. If Julio Lugo plays 128 games this season, we're in serious trouble. That's like the Celtics giving Sam Cassell 35 minutes a night. Woof. Lugo was brought in (at a ridiculous 4 yrs./$36M) to be an offensive sparkplug, but he's been an enormous disappointment in his two season as a Red Sox. To make matters worse, he's been brutal defensively. The Red Sox used a quadriceps injury last year as a convenient excuse to plug prospect Jed Lowrie into the everyday lineup. I don't know what kind of sick scenario Bill James' is counting on by projecting Lugo to get 463 at-bats this season, but I hope he was assuming he would be playing for a different team. I say: 67 games

Josh Beckett - Bill James says: 13 wins

13 W's? For Josh Fuckin' Beckett? Okay, to be fair to Mr. James, I should note that Beckett was 12-10 last year, and has only made 30 starts twice in his career (limiting his opportunity for wins). But this is the same guy who lost the 2007 CY Young by just a few votes, and he's one of the fiercest competitors in the game. If you think he doesn't want to make up for his terrible showing in last year's postseason, you're crazy. He's going to be a man on a mission from the first day of spring training, and I expect a rebound to 2007 form. Here's a great article if you don't believe me. I say: 17 Wins

John Lester - Bill James says: 12-11 record, 4.02 ERA, 1.39 WHIP

BLAH! This is easily the most puzzling of James' projections. Those are some gross numbers for a guy who was easily our best pitcher in 2008. I'm not in the camp that Lester will make another leap forward - I think he's in for a slight regression in 2009 - but I can't see where James is getting these numbers from. For his career, Lester is 27-8 in 59 starts, a .771 winning percentage. He's historically kept his team in the game, allowing more than 4 runs only 11 times in those 59 starts (and more than 5 runs in only 3 starts). Combine that consistency with an offense that Mr. James projects to score over 900 runs, and I just don't see 11 losses. A 4.02 ERA would be equally shocking. In 2008, Lester's first full season in the league, his worst month from an ERA standpoint was August, when he was 3-2 with a 4.34 in 6 starts. If you throw out his two highest ERA months, you're left with 2.97 (May), 3.03 (June), 2.05 (July), and 2.14 (September). Moving on to WHIP, 1.39 would be a horrible regression for Lester. For much of 2008 he displayed pinpoint control (3 BBs in June, 6 in July, 8 in August) and if you don't walk a lot of batters, it's hard to have a 1.39 WHIP. His worst WHIP month was April, when he walked 20 batters and had a whip of 1.49 in 6 starts. Aside from that, his month by month WHIP totals were 1.21 (May), 1.29 (June), 1.21 (July), 1.21 (August), and 1.16 (September). Sorry Bill, but where is 1.39 coming from? Is Jon Lester going to regress all the way to the pitcher he was in 2006? I say: 15-8, 3.38 ERA, 1.27 WHIP

John Smoltz - Bill James says: 15 starts

I know he's old. Okay, he's really old. Not many people expect the 41 year-old (42 in May) John Smoltz to be able to pitch more than a couple of months. But I think they're all wrong. John Smoltz is a warrior. John Smoltz doesn't do anything half assed. When John Smoltz enters a rehab program, he comes back stronger. The guy was throwing his fastball in the 90s and throwing all 5 of his pitches with pinpoint accuracy even before the Red Sox signed him earlier this month. The Sox will be careful with him. They probably won't let him pitch right away, even if he says he's ready, and they will probably monitor his innings closely. But I'm confident Smoltz will pitch well and pitch plenty. I think early May is a realistic timeline for him to start the season, and I think he'll get the occasional extra day of rest, but he'll stick in the rotation for the duration. I say: 22 starts.

Check out the complete spreadsheet below, and leave a comment with the projection YOU disagree with most.

Player	G	AB	H	AVG	R	OBP	SLG	OPS	2B	HR	RBI	SB
Ellsbury	145	559	169	0.302	100	0.359	0.424	0.783	29	9	53	52
Pedroia	158	642	202	0.315	107	0.376	0.472	0.848	52	15	78	16
Ortiz	142	539	155	0.288	98	0.396	0.571	0.966	39	37	119	1
Youkilis	155	608	176	0.289	102	0.386	0.487	0.873	47	23	101	4
Drew	140	495	135	0.273	93	0.395	0.477	0.872	29	22	79	5
Bay	156	582	163	0.281	100	0.376	0.505	0.881	35	30	102	9
Lowell	128	462	128	0.277	59	0.343	0.448	0.791	31	16	75	2
Lowrie	148	544	150	0.276	79	0.366	0.417	0.783	37	10	83	3
Varitek	122	395	94	0.238	45	0.334	0.392	0.726	20	13	52	1
Baldelli	103	312	87	0.279	47	0.331	0.465	0.795	18	12	44	5
Kotsay	94	295	79	0.268	34	0.331	0.383	0.714	17	5	32	2
Lugo	128	463	119	0.257	60	0.328	0.359	0.687	25	6	46	18
Bard	84	306	82	0.268	30	0.337	0.392	0.729	20	6	39	0
Player	G	GS	W	L	ERA	IP	K	WHIP	Saves	AVG	FIP
Beckett	29	29	13	8	3.57	189	176	1.22	0	0.248	3.69
Lester	32	32	12	11	4.02	212	168	1.39	0	0.259	4.07
Daisuke	30	30	12	8	3.58	184	174	1.29	0	0.236	3.81
Penny	22	21	8	7	3.92	130	90	1.35	0	0.268	4.01
Wakefield	28	28	10	8	3.91	160	107	1.29	0	0.251	4.69
Smoltz	15	15	6	5	3.87	93	78	1.29	0	0.266	3.68
Buchholz	24	24	7	6	4.27	116	111	1.42	0	0.258	4.17
Lopez	66	0	3	3	4.14	57	38	1.47	0	0.265	4.06
MDC	71	0	6	3	3.44	81	80	1.31	1	0.237	3.36
Ramirez	66	0	4	4	3.74	67	62	1.34	1	0.247	3.74
Okajima	61	0	5	2	3.19	61	57	1.16	0	0.229	3.57
Saito	50	0	4	2	3.09	52	55	1.12	0	0.231	3.25
Masterson	55	0	4	3	4.13	63	58	1.43	0	0.259	3.91
Littleton	61	0	5	3	3.93	71	51	1.38	0	0.259	4.21
Papelbon	64	0	5	3	2.04	71	78	0.97	41	0.209	2.83

Thanks, Matt!

Counting down to Opening Day...

This year's Super Bowl sucks (go Cardinals!), college basketball is still a month away from getting exciting (conference tournaments), and unless you're a fan of a team other than the Celtics, Cavs, Magic, Lakers, or Spurs, these regular season games are starting to lose their luster (can't the playoffs just start already?). 

No worries everybody, Spring Training is right around the corner! For those of you who aren't already counting down the days, pitchers and catchers report Feb. 14th and the remaining players report Feb. 17th. While the casual fan twiddles their thumbs waiting for the real games to begin, the knowledgeable fan is paying close attention to young prospects fighting for roster spots, veterans returning from injury, and how those free agent acquisitions will fit in with the club. There will be innumerable articles and primers to read and digest in late February and March, all leading up to the first regular season game to be played on Sunday, April 5th as the Phillies host the Braves. 

Mark your calendars, because after all; 

"A hot dog at the ballgame beats roast beef at the Ritz." - Humphrey Bogart

Couldn't agree with you more, Bogie.

OJ Mayo allegedly charged schools $10K per official visit

From CBS Sports:

CBS Columnist Gregg Doyel hints at, but doesn't outright name Mayo in his story. If it was OJ, it would explain how he was able to afford the Bentley shown behind him on this cover of SLAM magazine, when he was still an 18 year old college freshman.

We've all heard the stories of players receiving and accepting illegal gifts from schools, but OJ is believed to have taken this to the next level. I can't say I necessarily blame him, either. It's up to the coaches and athletic directors to follow the rules and tell this kid that that is not how things work. Instead, it's rumored that many schools paid him the $10K just to pay them a visit. That's more than Ruben Studdard made when he went on tour in 2004.

Don't be surprised to see more one-and-done college standouts try to use this charge per visit tactic as they attempt to recuperate income lost by being forced to play a year of college ball.

Cross country skiing is hard.

If you've never tried it, you probably think it's a piece of cake. If you consider yourself an athlete, or even if you once were, it looks like the sort of thing you could master in a few minutes.

I consider myself a proficient alpine skier, but I gave cross country a try this afternoon and I sucked. I just couldn't find the rhythm, couldn't get in a groove, couldn't keep up. The correct motion is very smooth and refined, and looks completely effortless. So of course when you do it incorrectly, it looks and feels like you are exerting maximum effort, but you're barely moving. To make matters worse, cross country skis have no edge, so you cannot push off and cut the same way you can in alpine skis. It was a miserable time to say the least, but I'm going to give it another go tomorrow. I refuse to be smoked by snowbirds with arthritis.

Wish me luck.

Big Ticket wallpaper

I think I liked the Rondo wallpaper better, but here's another option for all you Celtics fans out there:

Click on the image for a larger version that you can set as your desktop background. The image won't stretch or distort, which is always nice.

And just another reminder... www.redsarmy.com is the best Celtics blog out there. Check it daily!

"Old Boy Network" is no more in the NFL

If you are one of the over 11 million Americans (7.1%) currently without work, take a look around you next time you are in line at your local unemployment office. You just might recognize a former Super Bown Champion coach.

Mike Shanahan and Jon Gruden were recently axed to the surprise of casual fans and NFL insiders alike.

NFL franchises have been showing a lack of loyalty for a number of years now, but the most recent rash of hirings and firings points to a new trend. Teams with coaching vacancies aren't exactly throwing money at proven winners anymore, choosing young and inexperienced coaches instead. Don't feel bad for the Shanahan's and Gruden's of the world though. Their worst case scenario consists of being paid ridiculous amounts of money to sit on their ass in a cushy chair and talk about football every Sunday as television analysts. In other words, every man's dream job. So even though they aren't exactly headed to the poor house, the NFL head coaching landscape is changing.


So let's analyze the most recent passengers on the coaching carousel:


FIRED






Mike Shanahan, Denver Broncos - age: 56, head coaching experience: 17 years
Brought Denver back-to-back Super Bowl Championships in 1997-98. Shanny had a .616 winning percentage in 14 seasons in Denver, and brought them to the playoffs 7 times. Shanahan is well known for his run-heavy variation of the West Coast offense and his penchant for finding unheralded running backs and turning them into league-leading rushers behind small-but-powerful offensive lines. Despite failling to bring the Broncos to the playoffs the last 3 seasons, Shanahan was assumed to be safe in Denver, where he is a fan favorite.


Jon Gruden, Tampa Bay Suckaneers - age: 45, head coaching experience: 11 years
Won the Super Bowl in 2002 in his first year as the coach of the Bucs, making him the youngest coach to win a title at the age of 38. Chucky carried a .509 winning percentage in his time with the Tampa, making the playoffs in 3 of his 7 seasons. A year ago today, Gruden was re-signed through 2011, and the management of the Bucs seems to be firmly behind their coach. Despite losing the final 4 games of the 2008 season and blowing a spot in the playoffs (which they had all but locked up by week 12) no one saw Gruden's firing coming.

HIRED




Josh McDaniels, Denver Broncos - age: 32, head coaching experience: 0 years
McDaniels served as Quarterbacks coach for the New England Patriots in 2004, and as the Offensive Coordinator from 2005-2008. McDaniels main qualifications for a head coaching job are that was at the helm for the 2007 season in which New England set records for touchdowns scored by an offense with 67 (50 passing, 17 rushing) and points scored (589, or roughly 37 per game). He also is given much of the credit for the development of Matt Cassel, who is the only known quarterback to start an NFL game having never started in college. The Patriots went 11-5, and Cassel showed tremendous improvement throughout the year. It is not uncommon for successful coordinators to audition for head coaching vacancies, but McDaniel's youth and relative lack of experience coupled with the fact that his success came under the watchful eye of Bill Belichick means he's no sure thing to excel on his own as a head coach. It was a risky move by a proud franchise with a rich, winning history.


Raheem Morris, Tampa Bay Suckaneers - age: 32, head coaching experience - 0 years
Another 32 year old gets a head coaching gig, but Morris has considerably less experience than McDaniels. A defensive assistant in the early 2000s, Morris got his first big job as the defensive backs coach in 2007. Morris helped the Bucs go from 19th in pass defense to 1st in just one season. Morris was promoted to Defensive Coordinator earlier this offseason, and after the Gruden firing, was promoted yet again to Head Coach. Morris had gained attention as an excellent defensive coach, but it was thought that he would serve a few years as a coordinator before being considered for a head coaching gig. His rise through the ranks is unprecedented, although he comes from the same coaching background as Mike Tomlin, coach of the 2008 AFC Champion Pittsburgh Steelers. Both cut their teeth as Defensive Backs Coach for the Buccaneers, and Tomlin took his first head coaching job at the age of 34.

So what do we make of this trend? I think there are two main reasons that many NFL teams are handing over the reigns to younger, less experienced coaches. First, they don't demand as lofty a salary. Shanahan has averaged $3.4M per year since his hiring in 1995, and Gruden signed a 5-year, $17.5M contract in 2002 (an average of $3.5M per year) before signing a 3-year $15.3M extension before the 2008 season. Their replacements will make a more modest $2M per year (McDaniels signed for 4-years, $8M while the details of Morris' contract are unknown at this time). That may not seem like a lot of money saved, but in the current economy, I believe teams are doing whatever they can to cut costs. $1M here, $2M there can make a big difference in a league with a tight salary cap. Second, I believe that GMs and owners want to inject life into their franchise. Sticking with a coach who hasn't delivered frustrates fans and players, and they recognize that hungry, young coaches may be better at relating to and motivating players. It may sound bigoted, but who would you think a team of primarily 20-something black men would respect more and play harder for:

Just sayin'...

MLB 2009: Players you need to know

According to Wikipedia, the term "need to know", when used by government and other organizations (particularly those related to the military or espionage), describes the restriction of data which is considered very sensitive.

Now I'm not trying to kid myself...my readership is pretty low, and I doubt any of them are involved in the military. Okay, maybe only a couple of my friends will even read this post. And that is exactly why I can disseminate such valuable, sensitive information. Bookmark it, study it, cherish it, just don't share it with your fantasy leaguemates.

Without further ado, some names you need to know in 2009:

Ready for liftoff: These guys have had a taste of the MLB, and are ready to fully break out in 2009

Chris Davis - 1B/3B, Texas Rangers

Davis was called up to the big league club last June at the ripe age of 22, and proceded to hit 17 HR while driving in 55 in just under half a season. His power is the stuff of legend, and with a full-time gig at 1B this season, I feel safe predicting 30 HR for this future all-star.

Prediction: .275 AVG, 86 R, 31 HR, 95 RBI, 2 SB

Jay Bruce - OF, Cincinnati Reds

Bruce burst onto the scene last May, hitting .579 (11 for 19) in his first 5 games as a major leaguer. He cooled off considerably in June and July, but found his power stroke in August and September and finished the year with 21 HR (in 108 GP). Formerly known as the #1 Prospect in all of baseball, 2009 should be the year that Bruce starts to fulfill his potential. His power is real, but he whiffs a lot so I don't expect a high average. I do expect him to build upon his stolen base totals from last year as he learns to read pitchers better.

Prediction: .265 AVG, 95 R, 29 HR, 90 RBI, 17 SB

Alexei Ramirez - 2B/SS/OF, Chicago White Sox

Cuban-born Ramirez finished second in AL Rookie of the Year balloting in 2008, and showed a tremendous combination of power and speed. Take away his slow start in April, and Alexei was a .300 hitter. He showed surprising power for a player of his stature (21 HR), and he has blazing speed on the basepaths (although it only translated to 13 SBs). ChiSox manager Ozzie Guillen heaped praise on his young SS last season, so I expect to see him at the top of the order throughout 2009. Look for more sensational defense at SS, and a solid increase in the SB department.

Prediction: .300 AVG, 100 R, 23 HR, 97 RBI, 23 SB

Max Scherzer - RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks

Scherzer showed what a nasty strikeout pitcher he can be in this league in his stint in the majors last season. He struck out 66 batters in 56 IP (7 starts, 9 relief appearances) and had an ERA of 3.05. It's unclear if the D-Backs will continue to monitor his innings in 2009, but either way he will be a force on the hill.

Prediction: 115 IP, 9-5 record, 2.95 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 128 Ks

Josh Johnson - RHP, Florida Marlins

This 6'7" righty is slated as the #2 starter for the Fish this season, and if he can finally stay healthy for a full season, he should post good numbers. He's only 25, so this may be a make or break season for Johnson. I expect him to finally put it altogether.

Prediction: 180 IP, 14-9 record, 3.48 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 160 Ks

Yovani Gallardo - RHP, Milwaukee Brewers

Gallardo suffered an ACL tear last season that forced him to make only 4 starts in 2008. He enters 2009 healthy, and as the Brewers ace. There is no denying the 22 (soon to be 23) year olds' stuff, so if he doesn't suffer any setbacks, I expect him to be one of the very best in the National League.

Prediction: 180 IP, 15-7 record, 3.20 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 170 Ks

Adam Jones - OF, Baltimore Orioles

Jones has all the athletic ability in the world. He wore down toward the end of 2008, but his .270 batting average in 477 at bats is promising. Look for him to start to harness the power and speed that had people thinking 30/30 for a couple of years now.

Prediction: .281 AVG, 78 R, 16 HR, 83 RBI, 22 SB

Ubaldo Jimenez - RHP, Colorado Rockies

Jimenez posted an ERA of 5.90 in April, but saw that ERA decrease every month after that before he stumbled again in August. He finished strong in September, and any pitcher that can put together entire months of outstanding pitching (5-1, 1.74 ERA, 1.06 WHIP in July, 3-0, 2.90 ERA, 1.16 WHIP in September) catches my eye. Consider that this 25 year old also pitches better at Coors' field (3.30 ERA at home, 4.72 on the road) and you see that the potential for an all-star calibur year is there. If he can find consistency in his month-to-month and home/road splits, watch out!

Prediction: 201 IP, 15-10 record, 3.60 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 175 Ks

Chad Billingsley - RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers

Many claimed that the Dodgers had rushed Billingsley to the majors after he struggled with walks in his first two seasons. In 2008, Billingsley still walked a fair number of batters, but he established himself as a premier pitcher, reaching 200 IP, 200 Ks, and sporting an ERA of 3.14. He broke his leg this offseason in a freak accident (slipping on ice), but he should be ready for the start of the season. The Dodgers will be counting on him as their ace at just 24 years old.

Prediction: 205 IP, 16-8 record, 3.20 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 210 Ks

Scott Baker - RHP, Minnesota Twins

Baker is one of the oldest players on this list at 27, and he may be the most polished. He reached a career high with 172 IP in 2008, giving him 453 major league innings in his career. He excels at home where he was 5-1 in 12 starts with a 2.78 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP, but he was solid on the road at 6-3, 3.95 and 1.31. Baker's numbers were remarkably similar pre- and post-all star break, so his success is likely to last. Often compared to Brad Radke, Baker doesn't blow hitters away, but he mixes his pitches and speeds well and keeps them off balance. A big year is on the way in 2009.

Prediction: 190 IP, 14-7 record, 3.20 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 150 Ks

Brandon Morrow - RHP, Seattle Mariners

Morrow went from middle relief in April and May, to the closer role for June and July, then got sent down to the minors to get stretched out, and returned as a starter in September. He was dominant out of the bullpen, maintaining a sub-1.50 ERA all season. After starting 5 games his ERA ballooned to 3.34, but it's important to note that 3 of his 5 starts qualify as "quality starts." Walks hurt him (19 BB in 28 IP) but he still held opponents to a .212 BAA. At this point it looks like the Mariners plan on using him as a starter, and I think that's where he has more value.

Prediction: 140 IP, 9-6 record, 3.04 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 155 Ks

Almost there: highly touted prospects who will contribute in 2009.

David Price - LHP, Tampa Bay Rays

Rational Red Sox fans knew it was all over when Price came in to close out Game 7 of the ALCS. The big lefty had dominant stuff to go with the mound presence of a veteran. Price is expected to start the year in the Rays' rotation, but I'm not convinced he will stay there all season. In fact, I think the Rays would be stupid to thrust this 23 year old into a major league workload. And it's not like he wasn't dominant out of the bullpen. I wouldn't be surprised if he's closing by June, and that's not to be a knock on him at all.

Prediction: 98 IP, 8-4 record, 2.98 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 103 Ks

Matt Wieters - C, Baltimore Orioles

Talk out of Baltimore is that Wieters will be given every opportunity to win the starting C job out of spring training. I've heard that line before, and I think the Orioles do the cost-conscious thing and keep in him in minors to keep his arbitration clock from ticking prematurely. Still, he'll spend plenty of the season with the big league club, and he's done nothing but rake at every level.

Prediction: .290 AVG, 48 R, 14 HR, 53 RBI, 3 SB

Travis Snider - OF, Toronto Blue Jays

Die-hard Sox fans will remember Snider and his 2-4, HR, 5 RBI game in mid-September. Snider is not yet 21 years old, but he has flashed unbelievable potential, and he may make the Jays' roster on opening day.

Prediction: .288 AVG, 45 R, 12 HR, 50 RBI, 0 SB

Matt LaPorta - OF, Cleveland Indians

LaPorta was the main piece the Indians got back in the Sabathia deal, and given the lack of talent on the roster, LaPorta figures to make the team and play every day even though he has no MLB experience. He's torn up the minors, but I expect there will be growing pains.

Prediction: .272 AVG, 67 R, 19 HR, 71 RBI, 4 SB

Colby Rasmus - OF, St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals drew a lot of criticism for not calling Rasmus up last season, but I think the full year in AAA will make him more polished and ready to contribute...whether or not he can get playing time behind Rick Ankiel, Ryan Ludwick, and LaRussa favorite Skip Schumaker remains to be seen.

Prediction: .252 AVG, 38 R, 6 HR, 39 RBI, 9 SB

Nick Adenhart - RHP, Los Angeles Angels

Adenhart has been a top prospect for what seems like years now, he's still only 22. In 2009 I expect him to force his way onto the scene and get 8 or 9 starts.

Prediction: 45 IP, 3-2 record, 4.04 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 25 Ks

Lars Anderson - 1B, Boston Red Sox

This is a homer special. Anderson isn't due to reach the big show until 2010 at the earliest, and he is only 21 after all. But if Anderson continues to shred minor league pitching, the Boston brass may want to see just what they have in Anderson. Already being touted as the heir to Big Papi's throne, he'll probably get a cup of coffee with the Sox in September at the very least.

Prediction: .283 AVG, 14 R, 2 HR, 12 RBI

Michael Bowden - RHP, Boston Red Sox

Bowden made his big league debut last season in late August and got the W in an 8-2 victory over the ChiSox (5 IP, 2 ER, 3 Ks). Only 22 years old, Bowden will be handled with kid gloves all season. But should there be a hole in the Boston bullpen, or if the rotation is decimated with injuries, there will be little hesitation in using this big righty.

Prediction: 24 IP, 2-1 record, 3.66 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 18 Ks