April forecast: cold and rainy

My favorite baseball team,
the Boston Red Sox,

are going to struggle out
of the gate this year.

For all of you other die hards out there...temper your expectations for April, and for that matter, the first half of the year. I'm hoping that by writing this article now, I can keep some Bostonians away from the ledge and off of the phone lines at WEEI. Listening to caller after caller whine about losing 2 out of 3 in mid-April makes sitting in traffic on Brookline Ave. particularly unbearable.

So let's get realistic and brace ourselves for a slow start. The Sox are already dealing with some key injuries, and there will be more inexperienced players on the roster than we've seen in a long time.

Curt Schilling is out until at least the all-star break. Not that he was ever going to return to his 2004 form, but he was expected to eat innings and have the occasional sharp performance in the middle of the rotation.

After suffering from back spasms last week, Josh Beckett will not be the opening day starter as planned. He just recently resumed throwing, and the team is going to be very cautious with him. Expect him to miss his first couple of starts anyway, and if he experiences any minor setbacks along the way, it wouldn't surprise me to see him shut down until May.

With Beckett on the shelf and Schilling disabled, 24-year-old lefthander Jon Lester will be asked to be the #2 starter. While I can see Lester making big strides in this, his first full year in the Bigs, he will be inconsistent at times, especially early.

The same can be said about 23 year-old phenom Clay Buchholz, who will be forced into the rotation to start the season. Don't get me wrong, the kid has shown flashes of pure brilliance, but I agree with the thinking of the Red Sox brass, who would have preferred to start him out at AAA-Pawtucket where he could fine tune his pitches and keep his workload down.

Despite my concerns about the starting pitching early on, I think the Red Sox are in a great position in the long run. The roster is assembled perfectly to weather a full season of injuries, slumps, and any other unforeseen complication.

Sean Casey was an outstanding free agent pickup this offseason. He is a great clubhouse guy (nicknamed "The Mayor"), he is overjoyed to be a part-time player (anti-Jay Payton), he can spell Kevin Youkilis and play first, or Mike Lowell, pushing Youk to third, and he will give you a .300+ average with ease. He gives the Sox versatility with the defensive alignments and he will keep both Lowell and Youkilis fresh all year long.

Keeping malcontent Coco Crisp around, even though it seems to be a foregone conclusion that Jacoby Ellsbury will roam CF this season, is a great idea. Holding on to him now, while his value is low, means that the Red Sox can wait until they find a hole in their roster, or until his value rises. He is an excellent trading chip who can bring back real value to Boston.

Another reason to remain optimistic if the team is struggles early on is that I foresee many of Boston's players having more productive years. For example, although he won 15 games and struck out over 200 batters, Daisuke Matsuzaka went only 5-6 with a 5.19 ERA in the second half. He seemed to tire down the stretch, and it has been suggested that this was a result of the longer MLB season (162 games) as compared to the NPB (135 games). Expect Daisuke, or Dice-K if you prefer, to be more consistent all year, and to avoid the late season fatigue.

After averaging 39 HR and 118 RBI in his first 6 seasons in Boston, Manny Ramirez hit only 20 HR and drove in a meager 88 RBI in 2007. While many argue that he is on the decline, reports from spring training say he is in great shape and has seemed more determined this year, perhaps motivated by the Red Sox holding a club option for $20M for the 2009 season. Look for Manny to bounce back in a big way, with at least 30 HR and 100 RBI.

Two more players who performed well below career averages last year are Julio Lugo and J.D. Drew. Both were in their first season with the club, and the transition to Boston has proven difficult for other free agent acquisitions, namely Edgar Renteria in 2006. Regardless, both Lugo and Drew should bring their batting averages (.237 an .270 respectively) closer to their career averages (.271 and .284) and in doing so, generate more runs for this already potent offense.

Do me a favor, and keep this page bookmarked. When the Red Sox are sitting in 3rd place in the AL East with a 7-11 record, you can look to it for reassurance. The injuries to Schilling and Beckett and the ensuing slow start will make the team stronger in the end. The young pitchers will have experience under their belts and will have shaken off the disappointment of some tough outings early on. Most importantly, the team will have banded together to overcome adversity, relying on contributions from every man on the roster.