Red Sox progress report, 4/13

In my first post, I preached patience and understanding for what I expected would be a slow start for the Boston Red Sox. As I sit here, watching the Red Sox host the Yankees in the rubber game of a weekend series (and jumping out to a quick 3-0 lead!), I am pleasantly surprised by the performance of this years team.

The Red Sox are only 6-6 on the young season, hovering right at .500, but I am encouraged by how balanced the roster has appeared, and how well Tito Francona and company are overcoming obstacles.

The lengthy roadtrip to begin the year has been well documented, but the team has refused to use it as an excuse and with the exception of David Ortiz, no players performance has been affected much.

Before I go any further I must note that David is 3-43 to start the season, for a .070 batting average. He has been given a rare night off tonight, especially rare because of the opponent. He has only one extra-base hit on the year (a home run), and there is definitely reason for concern. There is even some speculation that there is something physically wrong with Ortiz, who underwent arthroscopic surgery on his right knee in November. I think the night off tonight is for the best, but if there is in fact anything wrong with him, I say put him on the DL immediately and get him healthy. If nothing is physically wrong, I fully expect he will come out of the funk and start hitting immediately. He's too talented a hitter to have his production suddenly fall off a cliff. The fact that the Red Sox have remained competitive even without his usual production is a testament to the depth of the lineup.

Mike Lowell has gone down with a sprained thumb, but the offense hasn't missed a beat thanks to Sean "The Mayor" Casey. As I mentioned in my first post, the aquisition of Casey was pure brilliance from the Sox front office. He has provided solid offense while filling in for Lowell, and shifting gold glove first basemen Kevin Youkilis to third base (and playing Casey at first) has had no effect on the defense.

J.D. Drew has had a hot bat (.387/8 Runs/3HR/8 RBI), and Youkilis continues to get on base (.396 OBP) and produce runs. And how can I fail to mention that Manny is still being Manny?!? The offense is there on this team, and when one player struggles someone will be there to pick up the slack.

As for the pitching, I expected the lose of Curt Schilling for several months and having Josh Beckett start the season on the DL to contribute to a slow start. Instead, the rest of the rotation has come together and performed above expectations. Daisuke Matsuzaka is looking like the legitimate CY Young candidate the Red Sox thought they were getting when they signed him in February 2007. Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz have both shown promise, and Tim Wakefield continues to do what he has for 13 seasons in Boston; eat innings and put the team in a position to win games.
Perhaps most importantly, Josh Beckett has returned from his injury and looked good, turning in a gutsy performance yesterday against the Yankees. He mowed down Yankee batters early on, before surrendering a few runs but still pitching well enough to earn the win.

It's a long season, but I am very encouraged by the way the 2008 Sox have overcome adversity and hung in there, even when they have had plenty of opportunities to make excuses.

Now I'm going to get back to the game. Daisuke is looking pretty good except for all of those walks! What's the deal with this Phil Hughes kid? Why all of the hype? More on this later...

April forecast: cold and rainy

My favorite baseball team,
the Boston Red Sox,

are going to struggle out
of the gate this year.

For all of you other die hards out there...temper your expectations for April, and for that matter, the first half of the year. I'm hoping that by writing this article now, I can keep some Bostonians away from the ledge and off of the phone lines at WEEI. Listening to caller after caller whine about losing 2 out of 3 in mid-April makes sitting in traffic on Brookline Ave. particularly unbearable.

So let's get realistic and brace ourselves for a slow start. The Sox are already dealing with some key injuries, and there will be more inexperienced players on the roster than we've seen in a long time.

Curt Schilling is out until at least the all-star break. Not that he was ever going to return to his 2004 form, but he was expected to eat innings and have the occasional sharp performance in the middle of the rotation.

After suffering from back spasms last week, Josh Beckett will not be the opening day starter as planned. He just recently resumed throwing, and the team is going to be very cautious with him. Expect him to miss his first couple of starts anyway, and if he experiences any minor setbacks along the way, it wouldn't surprise me to see him shut down until May.

With Beckett on the shelf and Schilling disabled, 24-year-old lefthander Jon Lester will be asked to be the #2 starter. While I can see Lester making big strides in this, his first full year in the Bigs, he will be inconsistent at times, especially early.

The same can be said about 23 year-old phenom Clay Buchholz, who will be forced into the rotation to start the season. Don't get me wrong, the kid has shown flashes of pure brilliance, but I agree with the thinking of the Red Sox brass, who would have preferred to start him out at AAA-Pawtucket where he could fine tune his pitches and keep his workload down.

Despite my concerns about the starting pitching early on, I think the Red Sox are in a great position in the long run. The roster is assembled perfectly to weather a full season of injuries, slumps, and any other unforeseen complication.

Sean Casey was an outstanding free agent pickup this offseason. He is a great clubhouse guy (nicknamed "The Mayor"), he is overjoyed to be a part-time player (anti-Jay Payton), he can spell Kevin Youkilis and play first, or Mike Lowell, pushing Youk to third, and he will give you a .300+ average with ease. He gives the Sox versatility with the defensive alignments and he will keep both Lowell and Youkilis fresh all year long.

Keeping malcontent Coco Crisp around, even though it seems to be a foregone conclusion that Jacoby Ellsbury will roam CF this season, is a great idea. Holding on to him now, while his value is low, means that the Red Sox can wait until they find a hole in their roster, or until his value rises. He is an excellent trading chip who can bring back real value to Boston.

Another reason to remain optimistic if the team is struggles early on is that I foresee many of Boston's players having more productive years. For example, although he won 15 games and struck out over 200 batters, Daisuke Matsuzaka went only 5-6 with a 5.19 ERA in the second half. He seemed to tire down the stretch, and it has been suggested that this was a result of the longer MLB season (162 games) as compared to the NPB (135 games). Expect Daisuke, or Dice-K if you prefer, to be more consistent all year, and to avoid the late season fatigue.

After averaging 39 HR and 118 RBI in his first 6 seasons in Boston, Manny Ramirez hit only 20 HR and drove in a meager 88 RBI in 2007. While many argue that he is on the decline, reports from spring training say he is in great shape and has seemed more determined this year, perhaps motivated by the Red Sox holding a club option for $20M for the 2009 season. Look for Manny to bounce back in a big way, with at least 30 HR and 100 RBI.

Two more players who performed well below career averages last year are Julio Lugo and J.D. Drew. Both were in their first season with the club, and the transition to Boston has proven difficult for other free agent acquisitions, namely Edgar Renteria in 2006. Regardless, both Lugo and Drew should bring their batting averages (.237 an .270 respectively) closer to their career averages (.271 and .284) and in doing so, generate more runs for this already potent offense.

Do me a favor, and keep this page bookmarked. When the Red Sox are sitting in 3rd place in the AL East with a 7-11 record, you can look to it for reassurance. The injuries to Schilling and Beckett and the ensuing slow start will make the team stronger in the end. The young pitchers will have experience under their belts and will have shaken off the disappointment of some tough outings early on. Most importantly, the team will have banded together to overcome adversity, relying on contributions from every man on the roster.